Heating Decarbonisation Risk
Areas heavily reliant on mains gas face a concentrated retrofit cost wave as boilers phase out. This tool shows the heating mix in any UK postcode and flags exposure.
Why does heating mix matter?
UK heating policy is moving away from gas boilers. New-build gas connections will end, EPC thresholds for rentals are tightening, and grant schemes are pushing households toward heat pumps and district heat. Areas where almost every home still runs on mains gas face a concentrated wave of retrofit costs over the next 10–15 years.
Our risk score combines current mains-gas dependency with the area's existing low-carbon heating share (heat pumps, district heat). The higher the score, the more exposed the area is to retrofit cost concentration. National average: 73.8% mains gas, 10.4% low-carbon.
Frequently asked questions
- Does this predict my own heat pump cost?
- No — it's an area signal, not a per-property quote. A specific home's retrofit cost depends on age, fabric, layout, and existing radiator sizing. But areas with very high gas dependency are likely to see grant-scheme bottlenecks, installer waitlists, and supply-side cost pressure first.
- Is low-carbon heating actually common anywhere?
- Pockets — newer developments, district-heat schemes (especially in some London boroughs and Scandi-influenced cities), and rural off-gas areas where heat pumps were the default. Most of England still sits at 75%+ mains gas.
- Which postcodes are supported?
- England and Wales only — Census 2021 MSOA-level data is not published for Scotland or Northern Ireland.
Worried about heat pump costs?
Open any Rightmove, Zoopla or OnTheMarket listing with the free HomeThink browser extension for a free AI read covering the EPC rating, energy costs and the full monthly cost.
A screening indication from public data, not a survey or a site investigation. It does not replace a specialist report, and the absence of a flag is not evidence of the absence of risk.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
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